The World Bank says risks to Ghana’s macroeconomic stability are tilted to the downside, warning that external shocks and domestic policy pressures could undermine recent economic gains.
In its 10th Ghana Economic Update Report, the Bank identified volatility in gold prices, increasing geoeconomic fragmentation and the conflict in the Middle East as major external concerns. The conflict has raised energy, food and agricultural input costs, which could weaken potential economic growth, reduce fiscal revenues and intensify inflation and pressure on the exchange rate.
The World Bank also expressed concern about policy slippages in the energy and cocoa sectors. It said fiscal pressures linked to the extension of temporary relief measures, including fuel price interventions, could reverse recent progress in macroeconomic stabilisation and put debt sustainability targets at risk.
Debt refinancing remains another significant concern. The Bank said higher debt service payments expected in 2027 and 2028 could create rollover risks because Ghana continues to rely on short-term debt instruments.
However, it noted that the reopening of Ghana’s domestic bond market, which began in April 2026, should help ease financing pressures by providing access to longer-maturity instruments.
“The reopening of the domestic bond market that started in April 2026 is expected to relax these financing pressures with longer-maturity instruments”.
The World Bank has proposed a series of measures aimed at managing the risks and protecting the progress made so far.
Revenue and fiscal consolidation
The Bank said increasing domestic revenue should remain central to Ghana’s efforts to achieve fiscal sustainability.
Although Ghana has recorded a primary surplus, the World Bank said this had been achieved largely through underspending rather than through broad-based growth in revenue collection.
It therefore recommended widening the tax base, improving compliance and developing a tax administration system capable of collecting revenue fairly from all parts of the economy.
The Bank said reforms should ensure that taxpayers across different sectors and income groups are brought into the system on an equitable basis.
On the quality of public spending, the World Bank highlighted measures introduced in 2025 to restore fiscal consolidation. These included amendments to the Public Financial Management (PFM) and Public Procurement Acts.
The changes are intended to strengthen controls over government commitments and reduce the risk of future fiscal slippages.
Despite those reforms, the Bank warned that continued reductions in capital investment, infrastructure maintenance and social transfers could damage the foundations of Ghana’s recovery over the medium term.
“Priority , must therefore must be placed on safeguarding high-return public investment, preserving priority social spending, and strengthening PFM to improve efficiencyrecognizing that fiscal discipline and growth-supportive expenditure are complementary, not competing, objectives”.
The World Bank said Ghana’s wider reform programme should also include a stronger framework for managing fiscal risks.
Its priorities include the systematic disclosure of contingent liabilities, the use of risk scenarios in budget planning and improved accountability mechanisms for state-owned enterprises.
According to the Bank, strengthening these areas would help the government identify potential pressures earlier, improve transparency and support more reliable fiscal planning.
