Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy is expected to grow by 4.5% in both 2026 and 2027, but the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the regional outlook remains uneven and vulnerable to further shocks.
Median inflation is projected to rise to 4.3% this year, as the Fund urged governments to prioritise price stability, rebuild financial buffers and continue supporting households most exposed to economic pressure.
The IMF said several factors had helped the region withstand the shock caused by the war in the Middle East. These included adjustments in global supply chains, favourable export revenues in some countries and reforms introduced before the crisis.
However, the headline growth figures conceal significant differences between economies. Growth is slowing in countries that are not heavily dependent on natural resources, while resource-intensive economies have continued to show resilience.
In a statement, the IMF said fiscal adjustment before the war and falling debt ratios represented important achievements. But it warned that high interest costs, limited reserves in many countries and declining aid had left governments with little room to respond if another negative shock occurred.
The Fund said the risks to its outlook remained “decidedly tilted to the downside”. It called for governments to maintain the necessary fiscal adjustment, save temporary gains from commodity prices, focus assistance on vulnerable households and tackle persistent inflation.
It also said that protecting investment and creating conditions for private-sector expansion would be central to strengthening economies over the longer term.
“Protecting productive investment and enabling private-sector growth are essential to make future shocks less costly and improve longer-term living standards,” the Fund said.
