The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the expansion in world trade to ease from 5.0 percent in 2025 to 4.6 percent in 2026, before settling at 4.7 percent in 2027.
The projection appears in the IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO), which says tariffs, changing trade relationships and shifts in production chains will weigh on global commerce. Businesses are gradually reconfiguring supply networks and replacing suppliers, while strong growth in technology-related trade flows is providing some support.
The Fund expects global imbalances to narrow only slightly over the medium term. It warned, however, that even this limited reduction may not happen. In recent years, WEO projections for global current account balances have generally underestimated the scale of the imbalances.
Global current account balances rose further in 2025, reaching about 3.8 percent of world GDP. The increase continued the trend seen since the pandemic and reversed the decline recorded after the global financial crisis.
China was the main driver of the widening gap. Its surplus rose to about 0.6 percent of world GDP, equivalent to 3.7 percent of China’s GDP. Several other Asian economies also recorded larger surpluses.
By contrast, the euro area’s surplus became smaller, while the surpluses of oil exporters declined. The United States remained the world’s largest deficit economy, with a current account deficit of about 1.0 percent of world GDP.
Early 2026 trade figures suggest global imbalances will increase slightly this year. They are also expected to remain high in 2027, as China and other Asian exporters record further increases in trade surpluses while the United States and the euro area see their external positions weaken.
The IMF said persistent differences between domestic saving and investment in major economies continued to influence these global patterns.
Fiscal policy is expected to play a role in a cyclical reduction in imbalances, particularly because some economies with current account surpluses are pursuing expansionary measures. That effect will be partly countered by a surge in technology-led business investment.
Although that investment is expected to moderate, it should continue drawing capital towards the United States and support substantial trade surpluses in several Asian economies. Faster productivity growth in the United States could improve its competitiveness in technology-related services and strengthen its trade balance.
The IMF said positive wealth effects could nevertheless increase domestic demand in the United States. Alongside capital inflows resulting from higher returns, that would leave the US current account deficit wider than it was during the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Fund also pointed to sustained large fiscal deficits in the United States and limited progress towards greater domestic consumption in China. It said those factors were contributing to external imbalances in the two countries, which together account for about 40 percent of global current account balances.
