The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to reach a staff-level agreement with Ghana today, October 10, 2025, following the conclusion of its Fifth Programme Review.
This projection, based on an analysis by Joy Business, reflects Ghana’s notable progress under the IMF programme across several key economic areas — including inflation management, debt restructuring, energy sector reforms, and overall financial stability.
Economic Performance and Indicators
Data reviewed by Joy Business indicates that Ghana has met or exceeded most of the Fund’s programme benchmarks. Inflation has now dropped to single digits — a development largely credited to the Bank of Ghana’s tight monetary policy and liquidity control measures.
Given this performance, the IMF mission is expected to confirm a staff-level agreement, which, upon Executive Board approval, will pave the way for a disbursement of over US$360 million in December 2025.
Experts say this milestone would strengthen investor confidence, boost donor support, and affirm the government’s commitment to maintaining fiscal discipline under the IMF arrangement.
Fifth Review Details
The IMF began its Fifth Review of Ghana’s programme on September 29, 2025, led by Mission Chief Dr. Ruben Atoyan. The visiting team held technical engagements with officials from the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Ghana, and Members of Parliament, including key meetings with Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson and BoG Governor Dr. Johnson Asiama.
Discussions reportedly centred on the clearance of arrears, expenditure audits from the previous fiscal year, and the adequacy of recent monetary policy adjustments in response to Ghana’s declining inflation. The mission also examined the country’s reserve accumulation and foreign exchange interventions.
This review is the penultimate one, ahead of a final assessment slated for April 2026, before Ghana concludes the IMF programme in May 2026. Analysts view it as critical, warning that Ghana’s ability to sustain fiscal prudence after exiting the programme remains uncertain.
Key Focus Areas for the Review
The Fifth Review is assessing Ghana’s economic data up to June 2025, with specific attention to:
- Sustained inflation reduction
- Reserve accumulation and external balance
- Arrears audits and clearance
- Recapitalisation of struggling private and state-owned banks
- Fiscal performance and the primary surplus target of 1.5% of GDP
- Delays in disbursements to funds such as NHIL, GETFund, and the Road Fund
- Shortfalls in social spending commitments
Background on Ghana’s IMF Programme
Ghana’s US$3 billion IMF-supported programme, approved on May 17, 2023, under the 36-month Extended Credit Facility (ECF), aims to restore fiscal stability, rebuild reserves, and support vulnerable populations.
An initial US$600 million was disbursed immediately after the approval, with subsequent tranches released after successful reviews every six months.
The programme’s main priorities include:
- Strengthening public finances through revenue reforms and efficient spending
- Protecting social programmes such as LEAP and the School Feeding Programme
- Sustaining disinflation and avoiding central bank budget financing
- Stabilising the financial sector and supporting private investment and job creation
With the Fifth Review nearing completion, Ghana’s steady progress under the IMF arrangement positions it for renewed investor trust and stronger macroeconomic resilience.
