The World Bank has maintained its forecast for Ghana’s economic growth at 4.8% for 2026, pointing to resilient activity, falling inflation and progress in restructuring the country’s debt.
The bank expects real GDP growth to rise to 4.9% in 2027 and 5.0% in 2028, after reaching 5.8% in 2024 and 6.0% in 2025.
Its October 2026 Africa Economic Update: Building AI-Readiness report says the economy’s recovery remains firm despite the expected slowdown in 2026. Strong domestic demand and the expansion of digital services are supporting growth, it says.
Ghana’s economy grew by 6.0% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 6.6% during the same period in 2025. Investment increased by 53.0%, with domestic demand identified as the main driver of the expansion.
Services contributed nearly three-fifths of total GDP growth after expanding by 8.0%. Activity in information and communications technology rose by 30.9%.
Industrial growth also improved, reaching 4.3% compared with 2.4% a year earlier, helped by increased oil and gas production. Agricultural growth, however, slowed to 3.9% from 7.1%, mainly because of a sharp fall in fishing activity.
Business confidence showed signs of recovery. Ghana’s S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 50.8 in August from 49.2 in July. A figure above 50 indicates expansion, and the World Bank attributed the improvement to stronger customer demand and increased hiring.
Inflation is forecast to decline to 8.0% in 2026 from 22.9% in 2024 and 14.2% in 2025. The World Bank expects it to remain around 8.0% through 2028.
The Bank of Ghana has nevertheless left its policy rate unchanged at 14%, adopting a cautious approach because of risks linked to global energy prices.
Debt restructuring supports investor sentiment
The World Bank described Ghana’s debt restructuring as a major step in the country’s recovery.
Public debt dropped from 70.1% of GDP at the end of 2024 to 48.8% at the end of 2025. It is estimated to have risen slightly to 52.6% in 2026, while the fiscal deficit is projected to narrow to 2.2% of GDP.
During the 2026 Article IV consultation, Ghana was moved into the moderate-risk category for both external and overall debt. The World Bank said this represented significant progress and identified Ghana as the first country since the 2022 debt distress wave to leave the high-risk category altogether.
The completion of the SADEREA debt exchange in July 2026, combined with continued fiscal consolidation under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, has helped improve investor confidence.
Ghana’s sovereign spreads fell from about 2,828 basis points in 2023 to 239 basis points by August 2026. The World Bank linked the decline to the completed restructuring, continued fiscal adjustment and Ghana’s reclassification to moderate risk.
Narrower spreads generally indicate that investors require a smaller additional return to lend to Ghana, which usually reduces the country’s borrowing costs.
