Ghana ranked 18th out of 25 sub-Saharan African countries for total government revenue and grants as a share of GDP, according to an assessment by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).
The country’s ratio stood at 15.7 per cent, well below the regional average of 20.1 per cent. The findings were published in a policy brief by IFS Executive Director Dr Said Boakye, which also estimated that Ghana loses US$6.56 billion each year in potential mining revenue ahead of the 2027 Budget presentation on November 12.
“While the average total revenue and grants-to-GDP ratio of a sample of 25 Sub-Saharan African countries stands at 20.1 per cent, Ghana’s total revenue and grants-to-GDP ratio stands at only 15.7 per cent, ranking as low as 18th out of the 25 countries, and falling short of the average by 4.4 percentage points,” the institute said.
The comparison was based on a 2022 cross-country dataset. Namibia recorded the highest ratio among the countries examined, at 31.3 per cent. Seychelles was third on 30.0 per cent, while Botswana was fourth with 29.5 per cent.
Mozambique ranked fifth at 28.5 per cent. South Africa and Zambia both recorded 26.0 per cent, followed by Mauritius and Rwanda on 22.8 per cent each. The Republic of the Congo completed the top 10 with a ratio of 22.7 per cent.
Ghana’s total revenue and grants in 2022 amounted to GH¢96.65 billion, equivalent to US$11.68 billion, according to the IFS.
The institute calculated that matching the 20.1 per cent regional average would have increased that amount to GH¢123.48 billion, or US$14.93 billion. That would have provided the Treasury with an additional US$3.25 billion.
The gap would have been greater if Ghana had matched Botswana’s 29.5 per cent ratio. The IFS said collections could then have reached GH¢181.23 billion, equivalent to US$21.91 billion, or US$10.23 billion more than the amount actually raised.
“ In fact, if Ghana’s total revenue-to-GDP ratio in 2022 was 29.5 per cent as Botswana’s, an African country with a heavy resource endowment like Ghana, Ghana would have collected as much as GH¢181.23 billion or US$21.91 billion in total revenue and grants,” the report said.
By 2025, government revenue and grants had increased in nominal terms to GH¢224.88 billion, or US$17.91 billion. However, the figure remained unchanged at 15.7 per cent of GDP.
Had the regional benchmark of 20.1 per cent been achieved in 2025, receipts would have risen to GH¢288.26 billion, leaving a shortfall of GH¢63.38 billion.
With the Finance Ministry ruling out Eurobond borrowing until 2030, the government is relying on domestic resource mobilisation and higher sliding-scale mining royalties. The IFS called for action to reduce revenue leakages at ports, cut 31 categories of investment tax exemptions, and secure direct equity or production-sharing stakes in mineral extraction.
