Ghana could have generated an additional US$6.56 billion from mining in 2025 if the state had captured revenue at a level comparable with Botswana, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).
The think tank estimates that Ghana’s mining sector produced US$13.40 billion in value added last year, but the government received only US$1.60 billion, equivalent to 11.9 per cent.
The figures were included in an IFS policy brief, A Reexamination of the Low Government Revenue Mobilization in Ghana, launched in Accra. IFS Executive Director Dr Said Boakye called on the government to address the shortfall in the 2027 Budget, which is due to be presented on Thursday, November 12.
Ghana and Botswana mining comparison
Between 2019 and 2023, mining revenue collected by the Ghanaian government averaged 15 per cent of the sector’s value added. In Botswana, the corresponding figure was 60.9 per cent.
If Ghana had matched Botswana’s rate in 2025, government receipts from mining would have reached US$8.16 billion. That would have been US$6.56 billion more than the amount actually collected, the IFS said after also examining the 2026 Mid-Year Budget.
Dr Boakye linked the difference to the two countries’ contrasting approaches. Botswana operates joint ventures with private mining companies, while Ghana relies on a concession system in which private firms control extraction and hold much of the operational data.
“The government of Botswana does not only earn large corporate income tax revenue from mining because it has an insider knowledge of mining operations and profitability, it earns even larger revenue from dividend payments and royalties,” he said.
Wider revenue shortfall
The IFS also highlighted Ghana’s broader difficulty in raising government revenue. Total revenue and grants stood at 15.7 per cent of GDP in 2022, placing Ghana 18th among 25 sub-Saharan African countries and below the regional average of 20.1 per cent.
Had Ghana achieved that average in 2025, total revenue and grants would have been GH¢288.26 billion. The figure would have exceeded actual receipts of GH¢224.88 billion by GH¢63.38 billion, or about US$5.05 billion.
“The low government revenue mobilisation usually leads to shortage of money to fund the government’s developmental projects, making it resort to borrowing. This has led to frequent large debt build-ups, high debt service costs, and fiscal or debt crisis,” Dr Boakye stated.
The report referred to an April 2026 disclosure by Ghana Revenue Authority Commissioner-General Anthony Sarpong that misdeclared imports had cost more than GH¢11 billion at the ports before the Publican AI customs platform was introduced. It also identified 31 tax and financial incentive packages listed by the Ghana Investment Promotion Centre.
For the 2027 Budget, the IFS recommended direct state equity investment and joint ventures in the extractive sector. It said production-sharing agreements should be considered where direct state investment was not feasible.
Dr Boakye also called for a “carrot and stick” system for revenue collectors and a full review of existing tax incentives.
“The government should conduct a thorough review of all existing tax incentive packages with the goal of getting rid of those that do not make economic sense in terms of government revenue lost vis-a-vis variables such as employment creation for Ghanaians and foreign exchange inflows that support the cedi,” he said.
