Ongoing research regarding the December 7 Presidential/Parliamentary elections indicates the presence of the Presidential candidates of the National Reform Party (NRP) and the Convention Peoples Party (CPP) on the ballot is going to help the Presidential candidate of the New Patriotic Party (NPP). How? They will be drawing votes from the candidate of the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC), making it difficult for him to get the needed 50% plus one of valid votes cast.
The REFORM’s candidate, Goozie Tanoh is drawing votes, mainly from the NDC. He is also drawing votes from the youth across the other political parties. His impact on the REFORM is particularly deep. Quite a sizeable number of cadres are with the REFORM and doing the legwork in the traditional vote basket of the NDC – the rural areas. It must be borne in mind that about 60% of voters this year are below 40 years of age. A further breakdown indicates that 18-28 year olds make up 33%. The registration of new voters this year confirms the youthful nature of this year’s voter population. 657,500 voters who registered, about 47%, were between 18-21 years.
A strengthened CPP obviously works to the disadvantage of the NDC. Many of the CPP supporters above the age of 50 years will not normally vote for the NPP, bearing in mind the problems between the CPP and Danquah-Busia traditions. These were the ones who have voted for the NDC when the Nkrumahist parties were torn apart by bickerings. The Nkurmahist supporters who did not vote for the NDC were those below 40 years.
The negative impact of Goozie and Professor. Hagan on Professor Mills’ votes actually makes the assertions by some NPP supporters that any horse-trading in the Parliamentary elections would work to the disadvantage of the NPP flagbearer untenable. The stronger the REFORM and CPP Presidential candidates, the less votes for the NDC candidate.
Had the opposition, especially the NPP been in the forefront of collaboration in the Parliamentary elections, the NDC would have been in danger of losing close to 20 seats, 15 of which would have gone to the NPP. With the ballot papers being printed, any possibility of horse-trading in the Parliamentary elections is virtually dead.
The rural-urban shift of voters works to the disadvantage of the NDC’s. The number of voters in the NDC’s traditionally safe seats are relatively smaller and whilst they may be winning the seat, the number of votes for six seats may be less than three seats the NPP may win. The NDC is not likely to receive the same level of support in the constituencies where they did well in 1996 since the CPP has grown stronger.
The Dispatch has published research into 135 constituencies and results of research into the remaining 65 constituencies are drawing to a close.
